Empirical and Earth system model estimates of boreal nitrogen fixation often differ: A pathway toward reconciliation

Abstract

The impacts of global environmental change on productivity in northern latitudes will be contingent on nitrogen (N) availability. In circumpolar boreal ecosystems, nonvascular plants (i.e., bryophytes) and associated N₂ -fixing diazotrophs provide one of the largest known N inputs but are rarely accounted for in Earth system models. Instead, most models link N₂ -fixation with the functioning of vascular plants. Neglecting nonvascular N₂ -fixation may be contributing toward high uncertainty that currently hinders model predictions in northern latitudes, where nonvascular N₂ -fixing plants are more common. Adequately accounting for nonvascular N₂ -fixation and its drivers could subsequently improve predictions of future N availability and ultimately, productivity, in northern latitudes. Here, we review empirical evidence of boreal nonvascular N₂ -fixation responses to global change factors (elevated CO₂ , N deposition, warming, precipitation, and shading by vascular plants), and compare empirical findings with model predictions of N₂ -fixation using nine Earth system models. The majority of empirical studies found positive effects of CO₂ , warming, precipitation, or light on nonvascular N₂ -fixation, but N deposition strongly downregulated N₂ -fixation in most empirical studies. Furthermore, we found that the responses of N₂ -fixation to elevated CO₂ were generally consistent between models and very limited empirical data. In contrast, empirical-model comparisons suggest that all models we assessed, and particularly those that scale N₂ -fixation with net primary productivity or evapotranspiration, may be overestimating N₂ -fixation under increasing N deposition. Overestimations could generate erroneous predictions of future N stocks in boreal ecosystems unless models adequately account for the drivers of nonvascular N₂ -fixation. Based on our comparisons, we recommend that models explicitly treat nonvascular N₂ -fixation and that field studies include more targeted measurements to improve model structures and parameterization.

Keywords: Earth system model; boreal; bryophyte; diazotroph; elevated CO2; nitrogen deposition; nitrogen fixation; nonvascular.