A contemporary reassessment of the US surgical workforce through 2050 predicts continued shortages and increased productivity demands

Wendelyn M Oslock; Bhagwan Satiani; David P Way; Robert M Tamer; Julie Maurer; Joshua D Hawley; Kyle L Sharp; Thomas E Williams; Timothy M Pawlik; E Christopher Ellison; Heena P Santry

doi:10.1016/j.amjsurg.2021.07.033

A contemporary reassessment of the US surgical workforce through 2050 predicts continued shortages and increased productivity demands

Am J Surg. 2022 Jan;223(1):28-35. doi: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2021.07.033. Epub 2021 Jul 24.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ The University of Alabama Birmingham Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Birmingham, AL, USA. Electronic address: wmoslock@uabmc.edu.
² Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Bhagwan.Satiani@osumc.edu.
³ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: David.way@osumc.edu.
⁴ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Columbus, OH, USA; Center for Surgical Health Assessment, Research and Policy (SHARP), Ohio State Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Robert.tamer@osumc.edu.
⁵ John Glenn College of Public Affairs, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Maurer.99@osu.edu.
⁶ John Glenn College of Public Affairs, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Hawley.32@osu.edu.
⁷ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of SCN Administration, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Kyle.Sharp@osumc.edu.
⁸ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Tom.williams@osumc.edu.
⁹ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Tim.pawlik@osumc.edu.
¹⁰ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Christopher.ellison@osumc.edu.
¹¹ Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Department of Surgery, Columbus, OH, USA; Center for Surgical Health Assessment, Research and Policy (SHARP), Ohio State Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Heena.santry@osumc.edu.

PMID: 34376275
DOI: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2021.07.033

Abstract

Background: We aimed to predict practicing surgeon workforce size across ten specialties to provide an up-to-date, national perspective on future surgical workforce shortages or surpluses.

Methods: Twenty-one years of AMA Masterfile data (1997-2017) were used to predict surgeons practicing from 2030 to 2050. Published ratios of surgeons/100,000 population were used to estimate the number of surgeons needed. MGMA median wRVU/surgeon by specialty (2017) was used to determine wRVU demand and capacity based on projected and needed number of surgeons.

Results: By 2030, surgeon shortages across nine specialties: Cardiothoracic, Otolaryngology, General Surgery, Obstetrics-Gynecology, Ophthalmology, Orthopedics, Plastics, Urology, and Vascular, are estimated to increase clinical workload by 10-50% additional wRVU. By 2050, shortages in eight specialties are estimated to increase clinical workload by 7-61% additional wRVU.

Conclusions: If historical trends continue, a majority of surgical specialties are estimated to experience workforce deficits, increasing clinical demands substantially.

Keywords: Surgeon retirement; Surgeon shortage; Surgeon workforce; Surgical education.

MeSH terms

Efficiency
Forecasting*
Health Services Needs and Demand / statistics & numerical data
Health Services Needs and Demand / trends*
Health Workforce / statistics & numerical data*
Humans
Specialties, Surgical / organization & administration
Specialties, Surgical / statistics & numerical data
Specialties, Surgical / trends*
Surgeons / supply & distribution*
Surgeons / trends
United States
Workload / statistics & numerical data