A probabilistic approach to online classification of bicycle crashes

Abstract

When a bicycle crash takes place, it is paramount for an emergency center to recognize the physical state of the cyclist as early as possible. However, an injured bicyclist may be incapable of making a phone call to the emergency center. In this study, we propose an online approach to classify bicycle crashes based on signals from an onboard inertial measurement unit (IMU), which can be used as a trigger function for an automatic emergency system. For this purpose, we define several bicycle crash features according to the kinematic properties of bicycle accidents. The input signals (variables) influencing the individual crash features are determined by the ANOVA method (analysis of variance). With the determined input signals, probabilistic models for each crash feature are trained on the base of logit models and 20,000 km naturalistic driving data including 20 real crashes. In addition, further crash and corner case data has been collected for the model training. A decision tree describing all probabilistic crash features is used to classify different kinematic events and crash scenarios. A series of driving tests with a crash-dummy and a crash-car are performed to verify the proposed crash classification approach, showing a sensitivity of 96.8%, a specificity of 99.6% and an accuracy of 99.5% of the trained model.

Keywords: ANOVA; Bicycle crash classification; Crash detection; IMU; Logit model; Probabilistic modeling.