Prioritizing the First Doses of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine to Save the Elderly: The Case Study of Italy

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is currently causing hundreds of deaths every day in European countries, mostly in not yet vaccinated elderly. Vaccine shortage poses relevant challenges to health authorities, called to act promptly with a scarcity of data. We modeled the mortality reduction of the elderly according to a schedule of mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that prioritized first dose administration. For the case study of Italy, we show an increase in protected individuals up to 53.4% and a decrease in deaths up to 19.8% in the cohort of over 80's compared with the standard vaccine recalls after 3 or 4 weeks. This model supports the adoption of vaccination campaigns that prioritize the administration of the first doses in the elderly.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; elderly; prioritizing 1st dose; vaccination.