Wheat grain yield decreased over the past 35 years, but protein content did not change

Abstract

The extent to which rising atmospheric CO2 concentration has already influenced food production and quality is uncertain. Here, we analyzed annual field trials of autumn-planted common wheat in California from 1985 to 2019, a period during which the global atmospheric CO2 concentration increased 19%. Even after accounting for other major factors (cultivar, location, degree-days, soil temperature, total water applied, nitrogen fertilization, and pathogen infestation), wheat grain yield and protein yield declined 13% over this period, but grain protein content did not change. These results suggest that exposure to gradual CO2 enrichment over the past 35 years has adversely affected wheat grain and protein yield, but not grain protein content.

Keywords: Food security; grain yield; protein content; rising atmospheric CO2; trends over time; wheat field trials.