Internet public opinion is affected by many factors corresponding to insufficient data in the very short period, especially for emergency events related to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To effectively support real-time analysis and accurate prediction, this paper proposes an early warning scheme, which comprehensively considers the multiple factors of Internet public opinion and the dynamic characteristics of burst events. A hybrid relevance vector machine and logistic regression (RVM-L) model is proposed that incorporates multivariate analysis, which adopts Lagrange interpolation to fill in the gaps and improve the forecasting effect based on insufficient data for COVID-19-related events. In addition, a novel metric critical interval is introduced to improve the early warning performance. Detailed experiments show that compared with existing schemes, the proposed RVM-L-based early warning scheme can achieve the prediction accuracy up to 96%, and the intervention within the critical interval can reduce the number of public opinions by 60%.
Keywords: COVID-19; Early warning scheme; Lagrange interpolation; Logistic regression; Relevance vector machine; critical interval.
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