Comprehensive Diagnostic Nomogram for Predicting Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy

Bo Li; Ning Pu; Qiangda Chen; Yong Mei; Dansong Wang; Dayong Jin; Wenchuan Wu; Lei Zhang; Wenhui Lou

doi:10.3389/fonc.2021.717087

Comprehensive Diagnostic Nomogram for Predicting Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy

Front Oncol. 2021 Jul 1:11:717087. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2021.717087. eCollection 2021.

Authors

Bo Li^{1

2

3}, Ning Pu^{1

2}, Qiangda Chen^{1

2}, Yong Mei³, Dansong Wang^{1

2}, Dayong Jin^{1

2}, Wenchuan Wu^{1

2}, Lei Zhang^{1

2}, Wenhui Lou^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Pancreatic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
² Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
³ Department of General Surgery, Shangluo Central Hospital, Shaanxi, China.

Abstract

Background: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) remains a severe and challenging complication of pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This study aimed to establish a novel postoperative nomogram-based diagnostic model for the early detection of CR-POPF in patients subjected to PD.

Methods: Consecutive patients who underwent PD in Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from December 2018 to October 2020 were retrospectively enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for CR-POPF. Then, a novel predictive nomogram was established accordingly.

Results: Among the consecutive 176 patients who underwent PD, 37 (21.1%) patients developed CR-POPF. Through univariate and multivariate analyses, the drain amylase (P = 0.002), serum creatinine (P = 0.009), and serum C reactive protein (P = 0.045) at postoperative day 1 (POD1) as well as the neutrophil count (P = 0.025) and temperature (P = 0.025) at POD3 were identified as independent risk factors for CR-POPF. Based on this, a novel predictive nomogram containing these factors was constructed to predict the probability of CR-POPF after PD. The formulated nomogram showed better performance to detect CR-POPF after PD with a sensitivity of 0.784, specificity of 0.770, positive predictive value of 0.475, and negative predictive value of 0.930 when compared to other predictors. In addition, the predictive value of the nomogram was assessed by a concordance index of 0.814 (95% CI, 0.736-0.892), which was significantly higher than indicators alone. This was further validated and depicted by decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve.

Conclusion: This study established a diagnostic nomogram of postoperative objective parameters that can predict the development of CR-POPF after PD with a good discriminative ability and predictive accuracy.

Keywords: decision curve analysis; nomogram; pancreatic fistula; pancreaticoduodenectomy; risk factor.