Objective: The hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) plays an important role in the treatment and prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. Our study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for an HVPG >12 mmHg.
Methods: A retrospective study was performed to create a nomogram for an HVPG >12 mmHg in a training cohort that was validated in another cohort. The discriminatory ability and calibration of the nomogram were tested using the C-statistic, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plots.
Results: The nomogram was based on portosystemic shunts identified on computed tomography images, the etiology of cirrhosis and the Child-Pugh grade. These parameters were significantly associated with an HVPG >12 mmHg (P < 0.05 for both the training and validation cohorts). In the training cohort, the model showed good discrimination (C-statistic, AUROC, and R2 of 0.71, 0.71 and 0.13, respectively) and good calibration. The total cutoff value was 112 and the sensitivity and specificity were 57.1% and 77.6%, respectively. The application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still yielded good discrimination (C-statistic 0.75 [95% confidence interval 0.61-0.89], AUROC 0.75, and R2 0.16) and good calibration.
Conclusions: This nomogram is a convenient tool for predicting an HVPG >12 mmHg in patients with cirrhosis and can help clinicians quickly identify patients with decompensated cirrhosis.
Keywords: hepatic venous pressure gradient; liver cirrhosis; nomograms; portal hypertension; portosystemic shunt.
© 2021 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.