We test the theoretical free energy surface (FES) for two-step nucleation (TSN) proposed by Iwamatsu [J. Chem. Phys. 134, 164508 (2011)] by comparing the predictions of the theory to numerical results for the FES recently reported from Monte Carlo simulations of TSN in a simple lattice system [James et al., J. Chem. Phys. 150, 074501 (2019)]. No adjustable parameters are used to make this comparison. That is, all the parameters of the theory are evaluated directly for the model system, yielding a predicted FES, which we then compare to the FES obtained from simulations. We find that the theoretical FES successfully predicts the numerically evaluated FES over a range of thermodynamic conditions that spans distinct regimes of behavior associated with TSN. All the qualitative features of the FES are captured by the theory, and the quantitative comparison is also very good. Our results demonstrate that Iwamatsu's extension of classical nucleation theory provides an excellent framework for understanding the thermodynamics of TSN.