Background: This study aimed to establish and validate an easy-to-operate novel scoring system based on simple and readily available clinical indices for predicting the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 1045 eligible CKD patients from a publicly available database. Factors included in the model were determined by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analyses based on the training set.
Results: Independent prognostic factors including etiology, hemoglobin level, creatinine level, proteinuria, and urinary protein/creatinine ratio were determined and contained in the model. The model showed good calibration and discrimination. The area under the curve (AUC) values generated to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression-free survival in the training set were 0.947, 0.931, and 0.939, respectively. In the validation set, the model still revealed excellent calibration and discrimination, and the AUC values generated to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression-free survival were 0.948, 0.933, and 0.915, respectively. In addition, decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model was clinically beneficial. Moreover, to visualize the prediction results, we established a web-based calculator ( https://ncutool.shinyapps.io/CKDprogression/ ).
Conclusion: An easy-to-operate model based on five relevant factors was developed and validated as a conventional tool to assist doctors with clinical decision-making and personalized treatment.
Keywords: Area under the curve; Chronic kidney disease; End-stage renal disease; Prognostic factor; Progression-free survival.