The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pathologic complete regression (pCR) by the BRCA1 gene mutation status in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The study involved 143 women (mean age 55.4 ± 13.1 years) with TNBC. The BRCA1 mutation was observed in 17% of the subjects. The most commonly used (85.3%) chemotherapy regimen was four cycles of adriamycine and cyclophosphamide followed by 12 cycles of paclitaxel (4AC + 12T). The differences between clinico-pathological factors by BRCA1 status were estimated. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for pCR vs. non-pCR were calculated using logistic regression. The probability distribution of pCR based on BRCA1 status was estimated using beta distributions. The presence of T3-T4 tumours, cancer in stages II and III, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of chemotherapy schedules other than 4AC + 12T significantly decreased the odds of pCR. It was established that there was a 20% chance that pCR in patients with the BRCA1 mutation was 50% or more times as frequent than in patients without the mutation. Thus, the BRCA1 mutation can be a predictive factor for pCR in patients with TNBC.
Keywords: BRCA1; Bayesian statistics; breast cancer; pathologic complete regression; triple-negative breast cancer.