Background: The physician shortage in the United States (US) continues to become more apparent. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between the US physician distribution from 2012-2019 by specialty at the state/regional level relative to the corresponding population growth.
Methods: US matched residents and practicing physicians from 2012-2019 were extracted from the National Resident Matching Program and Association of American Medical College databases, respectively. Residents and practicing physicians were divided by geographic regions (West, Midwest, South, Northeast), states, and specialties (anesthesiology, emergency medicine, family medicine, general surgery (GS), internal medicine, obstetrics/gynecology and pediatrics).
Results: Entering residents and physicians increased across 7 specialties from 2012-2019 with the exception of GS, which showed .2% decrease in practicing physicians. GS experienced decreases in entering residents in all US regions except the South. All specialties showed a decrease in the people-per-physician (PPP) except GS and pediatrics, which had a 4.1% and 71.3% increase, respectively. EM showed the largest growth overall, both in entering residents and overall workforce.
Conclusion: GS experienced slow growth of residents, decreases in practicing physicians and workforce overall, and an increase in PPP from 2012-2019. Our findings suggest that current population growth rate is exceeding the rate of physicians entering the field of GS and highlights the need for interventions to promote the recruitment of GS residents and retainment of attending physicians, particularly for rural areas. Future research to measure surgeon distribution in relation to patient outcomes and the efficacy of recent policy to address shortages can help define additional interventions to address physician shortages moving forward.
Keywords: Association of American Medical Colleges; Medicare Act; National Resident Matching Program; graduate medical education; medicare prospective payment system; physician shortage.