NAFLD and Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease Will Be Responsible for Almost All New Diagnoses of Cirrhosis in Canada by 2040

Abstract

Background and aims: Mortality secondary to cirrhosis in North America is increasing. We describe the incidence of cirrhosis stratified by birth cohort and cirrhosis etiology and project disease burden to 2040.

Approach and results: This is a retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada, using population-based administrative health care data. Individuals with incident cirrhosis (2000-2017) were identified, and etiology was defined as HCV, HBV, NAFLD, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), or autoimmune liver disease/other using validated case definitions. Annual age/sex-adjusted cirrhosis incidence rate per 100,000 person-years was calculated with incidence projection to 2040 using age-period-cohort modeling along with average annual percent change (AAPC) in cirrhosis incidence stratified by birth cohort and etiology. In total, 159,549 incident cases of cirrhosis were identified. Incidence increased by 26% with an AAPC of 2%/year (95% CI, 1.6-2.4; P < 0.001). The largest increases were for HCV (AAPC, 4.1%/year; 95% CI, 2.6-5.7; P < 0.001) and NAFLD (AAPC, 3.3%/year; 95% CI, 2.6-4.1%; P < 0.001). ALD and HCV cirrhosis in those born >1980 increased by 11.6%/year (95% CI, 9.3-13.9; P < 0.001) and 9.5%/year (95% CI, 6.2-13.0; P < 0.001), respectively. However, by 2040, cirrhosis incidence is projected to continue to increase, driven mostly by NAFLD, especially in postmenopausal women, and ALD in individuals born >1980.

Conclusions: Cirrhosis incidence will continue to increase over the next two decades secondary to NAFLD with a worrisome rapid rise in ALD cirrhosis among young adults. Public education, policy, and intervention targeting NAFLD risk factors and alcohol use in young adults are urgently needed.