Global food security in the context of COVID-19: A scenario-based exploratory analysis

Parmeshwar Udmale; Indrajit Pal; Sylvia Szabo; Malay Pramanik; Andy Large

doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100120

Global food security in the context of COVID-19: A scenario-based exploratory analysis

Prog Disaster Sci. 2020 Oct:7:100120. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100120. Epub 2020 Jul 22.

Authors

Parmeshwar Udmale¹, Indrajit Pal², Sylvia Szabo¹, Malay Pramanik¹, Andy Large³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), PO. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand.
² Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), PO. Box 4, Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand.
³ School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, United Kingdom.

Abstract

This study highlights the major players in the global food balance, potential implications of COVID-19 on global food supply, and SDG-2 (zero hunger). It found that developing countries, fifteen from Africa followed by ten from Latin America, six from Oceania, and four from Asia, are the most vulnerable to changes cereal supply shocks. It concludes that the current pandemic is likely to cause transitory food insecurity across such vulnerable countries. The effects of the pandemic on food security (SDG-2) may persist longer as a combined effect of economic slowdown and increase in poverty, limiting food supply and access beyond 2020.

Keywords: Cereals; Food supply chains; International food trade.