Each year, an individual mature large saguaro cactus produces about one million seeds in attractive juicy fruits that lure seed predators and seed dispersers to a 3-month feast. From the million seeds produced, however, only a few will persist into mature saguaros. A century of research on saguaro population dynamics has led to the conclusion that saguaro recruitment is an episodic event that depends on the convergence of suitable conditions for survival during the critical early stages. Because most data have been collected in Arizona, particularly in the surroundings of Tucson, most research has relied on a limited amount of environmental variation. In this study, we upscaled this knowledge on saguaro recruitment to a regional scale with a new method that used the inverse-growth modeling of 1,487 saguaros belonging to 13 populations in a latitudinal gradient ranging from arid desert to tropical thornscrub forest in Sonora, Mexico. Using generalized linear and additive mixed models, we created two 110-yr-long saguaro recruitment curves: one driven only by previous size, and the second driven by size, drought, and soil structure. We found evidence that saguaro recruitment is indeed episodic, with periodicities of 20-30 yr, possibly related to strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Our results suggest that saguaros rely on multidecadal periodic pulses of good beneficial years to incorporate new individuals into their populations. Inverse-growth modeling can be used in a wide variety of plant species to study their recruitment dynamics.
Keywords: Carnegiea gigantea; Sonora; inverse modeling; periodicity; recruitment curves.
© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.