Modelling the potential cost-effectiveness of food-based programs to reduce malnutrition

Patrick Webb; Goodarz Danaei; William A Masters; Katherine L Rosettie; Ashley A Leech; Joshua Cohen; Mia Blakstad; Sarah Kranz; Dariush Mozaffarian; Global Nutrition and Policy Consortium

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100550

Modelling the potential cost-effectiveness of food-based programs to reduce malnutrition

Glob Food Sec. 2021 Jun:29:100550. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100550.

Affiliations

¹ Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, Boston, MA, USA.
² Patan Academy of Health Sciences, Kathmandu, Nepal.
³ Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
⁴ Department of Health Policy, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN, USA.

Abstract

Poor quality diets contribute to malnutrition globally, but evidence is weak on the cost-effectiveness of food-based interventions that shift diets. This study assessed 11 candidate interventions developed through Delphi techniques to improve diets in India, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. A Markov simulation model incorporated time, individual-level, nutrition, and policy parameters to estimate health impacts and cost-effectiveness for reducing stunting, anaemia, diarrhea, and mortality in preschool children. At an assumed 80% coverage, interventions considered would potentially save between 0·16 and 3·20 years of life per child. The average cost-effectiveness ratio ranged from US$9 to US$2000 per life year saved. This approach, linking expert knowledge, known costs, and modelling, offers potential for estimating cost-effective investments for better informed policy choice where empirical evidence is limited.

Keywords: Cost-effectiveness; Diets; Food-based interventions; Health; Nutrition.