Association of Living in Evacuation Areas With Long-Term Care Need After the Fukushima Accident

Abstract

Objectives: A previous report indicated that evacuation owing to the government order after the Fukushima disaster impacted the health status of older people; however, the association between living in evacuation areas and independence in their daily lives was unclear. This study examined the hypothesis that people who were forced to evacuate their homes were more likely to need long-term care (LTC).

Design: Historical cohort study.

Setting and participants: Older individuals (n = 13,934) in Minamisoma, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, part of which was designated as an evacuation area.

Methods: Background and certification data from April 2012 to December 2016 were extracted. Logistic regression analysis with sex stratification was performed to examine the association between certification of care levels 1-5 and living in evacuation areas.

Results: In total, 18,178 Minamisoma residents aged ≥65 years who had not received LTC certification as of March 11, 2011, were eligible for follow-up. Of these, 4244 residents without a certificate of residence by June 1, 2016, were excluded. Of 13,934 residents followed up, 1553 (11.1%) were newly certified as care levels 1-5. Certification of care levels 1-5 was associated with living in evacuation areas [odds ratio (OR) 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.18] and living alone at the time of the disaster (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.92-3.47) in men and living alone at the time of the disaster (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.15-1.59) in women.

Conclusions and implications: Living in evacuation areas and living alone were associated with LTC certification. In evacuation areas, individuals with family members were more likely to be certified compared with those in nonevacuation areas. Among residents in evacuation areas, several individuals with family members experiencing family structure changes might need LTC. Preventive measures (including group relocation) may be beneficial for those being evacuated following a disaster.

Keywords: Fukushima disaster; Long-term care certification; evacuation; older people.