Understanding the critical rate of environmental change for ecosystems, cyanobacteria as an example

PLoS One. 2021 Jun 18;16(6):e0253003. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253003. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Recently it has been show that in some ecosystems fast rates of change of environmental drivers may trigger a critical transition, whereas change of the same magnitude but at slower rates would not. So far, few studies describe this phenomenon of rate-induced tipping, while it is important to understand this phenomenon in the light of the ongoing rapid environmental change. Here, we demonstrate rate-induced tipping in a simple model of cyanobacteria with realistic parameter settings. We explain graphically that there is a range of initial conditions at which a gradual increase in environmental conditions can cause a collapse of the population, but only if the change is fast enough. In addition, we show that a pulse in the environmental conditions can cause a temporary collapse, but that is dependent on both the rate and the duration of the pulse. Furthermore, we study whether the autocorrelation of stochastic environmental conditions can influence the probability of inducing rate-tipping. As both the rate of environmental change, and autocorrelation of the environmental variability are increasing in parts of the climate, the probability for rate-induced tipping to occur is likely to increase. Our results imply that, even though the identification of rate sensitive ecosystems in the real world will be challenging, we should incorporate critical rates of change in our ecosystem assessments and management.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change
  • Cyanobacteria / growth & development*
  • Models, Biological
  • Phytoplankton / growth & development*
  • Stochastic Processes

Grants and funding

BvdB and EvN carried out this work under the programme of the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (NESSC), financially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science (OCW). In addition, EvB received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.