Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Erin E McDuffie; Randall V Martin; Joseph V Spadaro; Richard Burnett; Steven J Smith; Patrick O'Rourke; Melanie S Hammer; Aaron van Donkelaar; Liam Bindle; Viral Shah; Lyatt Jaeglé; Gan Luo; Fangqun Yu; Jamiu A Adeniran; Jintai Lin; Michael Brauer

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23853-y

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM_2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 14;12(1):3594. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23853-y.

Authors

Erin E McDuffie^{1

2}, Randall V Martin^{3

4}, Joseph V Spadaro⁵, Richard Burnett⁶, Steven J Smith⁷, Patrick O'Rourke⁷, Melanie S Hammer^{3

4}, Aaron van Donkelaar^{3

4}, Liam Bindle^{3

4}, Viral Shah^{8

9}, Lyatt Jaeglé⁸, Gan Luo¹⁰, Fangqun Yu¹⁰, Jamiu A Adeniran¹¹, Jintai Lin¹¹, Michael Brauer^{6

12}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Energy, Environmental, and Chemical Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA. erin.mcduffie@wustl.edu.
² Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada. erin.mcduffie@wustl.edu.
³ Department of Energy, Environmental, and Chemical Engineering, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA.
⁴ Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada.
⁵ Spadaro Environmental Research Consultants (SERC), Philadelphia, PA, USA.
⁶ Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁷ Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA.
⁸ Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
⁹ Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹⁰ Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA.
¹¹ Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, China.
¹² School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

Abstract

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM_2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM_2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74-1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM_2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52-0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32-0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28-0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Air Pollutants / analysis*
Air Pollution
Disease
Environmental Exposure
Fossil Fuels*
Humans
Industry
Mortality
Particulate Matter / analysis*
Risk Factors

Substances

Air Pollutants
Fossil Fuels
Particulate Matter