An Immune-Related Long Non-Coding RNA Signature to Predict the Prognosis of Ewing's Sarcoma Based on a Machine Learning Iterative Lasso Regression

Abstract

The aim of this study was to construct a new immune-associated long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) signature to predict the prognosis of Ewing sarcoma (ES) and explore its molecular mechanisms. We downloaded transcriptome and clinical prognosis data from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GSE17679, which included 88 ES samples and 18 matched normal skeletal muscle samples), and used it as a training set to identify immune-related lncRNAs with different expression levels in ES. Univariable Cox regression was used to screen immune-related lncRNAs related to ES prognosis, and an immune-related lncRNA signature was constructed based on machine learning iterative lasso regression. An external verification set was used to confirm the predictive ability of the signature. Clinical feature subgroup analysis was used to explore whether the signature was an independent prognostic factor. In addition, CIBERSORT was used to explore immune cell infiltration in the high- and low-risk groups, and to analyze the correlations between the lncRNA signature and immune cell levels. Gene set enrichment and variation analyses were used to explore the possible regulatory mechanisms of the immune-related lncRNAs in ES. We also analyzed the expression of 17 common immunotherapy targets in the high- and low-risk groups to identify any that may be regulated by immune-related lncRNAs. We screened 35 immune-related lncRNAs by univariate Cox regression. Based on this, an immune-related 11-lncRNA signature was generated by machine learning iterative lasso regression. Analysis of the external validation set confirmed its high predictive ability. DPP10 antisense RNA 3 was negatively correlated with resting dendritic cell, neutrophil, and γδ T cell infiltration, and long intergenic non-protein coding RNA 1398 was positively correlated with resting dendritic cells and M2 macrophages. These lncRNAs may affect ES prognosis by regulating GSE17721_CTRL_VS_PAM3CSK4_12H_BMDC_UP, GSE2770_IL4_ACT_VS_ACT_CD4_TCELL_48H_UP, GSE29615_CTRL_VS_DAY3_ LAIV_IFLU_VACCINE_PBMC_UP, complement signaling, interleukin 2-signal transducer and activator of transcription 5 signaling, and protein secretion. The immune-related 11-lncRNA signature may also have regulatory effects on the immunotherapy targets CD40 molecule, CD70 molecule, and CD276 molecule. In conclusion, we constructed a new immune-related 11-lncRNA signature that can stratify the prognoses of patients with ES.

Keywords: Ewing sarcoma; immune infiltration; long non-coding RNA; machine learning; prognostic analysis.