Probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 deaths with the progression rate from pneumonia to ARDS: An open-data-based global study

Abstract

Background: Cumulative data of case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 varied across countries. A forecasting model generated based on detailed information from three countries during the initial phase of pandemic showed that progression rates from pneumonia to ARDS (PRPA) varied by country and were highly associated with CFR. We aim to elucidate the impact of the PRPA on COVID-19 deaths in different periods of pandemic.

Methods: We used the country-based, real-time global COVID-19 data through GitHub repository to estimate PRPA on the first period (January to June), second period (July to September), and third period (October to December) in 2020. PRPA was used for predicting COVID-19 deaths and assessing the reduction in deaths in subsequent two periods.

Results: The estimated PRPA varied widely from 0.38% to 51.36%, with an average of 15.99% in the first period. The PRPA declined to 8.44% and 6.35% in the second and third period. The CFR declined stepwise and was 4.94%, 2.61%, and 1.96%, respectively. Some countries exhibited a decrease in the PRPA from the second to the third period whereas others showed the opposite, particularly where selected viral mutants were prevalent. Overall, the number of observed deaths was lower than that of the predicted deaths in the second and third periods, suggesting an improvement in management of COVID-19 patients. Besides, the degree of improvement depends on the extent of change in PRPA.

Conclusion: PRPA is a useful indicator to facilitate decision making and assess the improvement of clinical management and medical capacity by forecasting deaths.

Keywords: ARDS; COVID-19; Case-fatality rate; Disease progression; Forecasting.