Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions

Sci Rep. 2021 Jun 9;11(1):12213. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-91247-7.

Abstract

As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19 / epidemiology*
  • COVID-19 / mortality
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Disease Susceptibility
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Pandemics / prevention & control
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*