Making, driving, and disposing of U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) account for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions related to energy and processing. This study calculates future emissions and global temperature rises attributable to U.S. LDVs. We examine how 2021-2050 U.S. LDV cumulative emissions can be limited to 23.1 Gt CO2equiv, helping to limit global warming to less than 2 °C. We vary four vehicle life cycle parameters (transport demand, sales share of alternative fuel vehicles, vehicle material recycling rates, and vehicle lifespans) in a dynamic fleet analysis to determine annual LDV sales, scrappage, and fleet compositions. We combine these data with vehicle technology and electricity emission scenarios to calculate annual production, use, and disposal emissions attributable to U.S. LDVs. Only 3% of the 1512 modeled pathways stay within the emission limit. Cumulative emissions are most sensitive to transport demand, and the speed of fleet electrification and electricity decarbonization. Increasing production of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 100% of sales by 2040 (at the latest) is necessary, and early retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles is beneficial. Rapid electricity decarbonization minimizes emissions from BEV use and increasingly energy-intensive vehicle production. Deploying high fuel economy vehicles can increase emissions from the production of BEV batteries and lightweight materials. Increased recycling has a small effect on these emissions because over the time period there are few postconsumer batteries and lightweight materials available for recycling. Without aggressive actions, U.S. LDVs will likely exceed the cumulative emissions budget by 2039 and contribute a further 0.02 °C to global warming by 2050, 2.7% of the remaining global 2 °C budget.
Keywords: climate change; electric vehicles; electricity decarbonization; fossil fuels; transportation.