Shield tunneling in karst areas poses significant challenges, as vibration caused by the shield machine can disturb the stability of the karst caves, ultimately resulting in the collapse of a tunnel. In the present study, a numerical model involving an iteration process was developed based on the Mindlin solution scheme to identify the optimal shield tunneling speed for minimizing the disturbance to karst cave stability. The developed model was then implemented to investigate an underground tunnel constructed in a karst region with different shield tunneling strategies. By using the variation in the energy density of a karst cave as a performance index, the model predicts that when approaching the affected zone of a karst carve (e.g., approximately 5 m from the carve), the shield tunneling machine should be controlled within a certain speed (i.e., < 30 mm/min). Once the shield tunneling machine moves into the affected zone of the cave, the speed of the machine needs to be decelerated to 11 mm/min, and the speed of 30 mm/min can be restored when the shield machine moves out of the affected zone. This finding demonstrates that the developed model could potentially be used to identify the optimal shield tunneling speed to minimize the disturbance to karst cave stability and ensure the safety of tunnel construction in karst regions.