Redefining monetary policy rules: A threshold approach

PLoS One. 2021 May 28;16(5):e0252316. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252316. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

In this paper, we try to analyse the extent to which a redefinition of the monetary policy rule would help to avoid the zero-lower bound, as well as to explore the conditions needed to avoid that constraint. To that aim, we estimate the threshold values of the key variables of the policy rule: the inflation gap and the output gap. The threshold model allows us to know which are the turning points from which the relationship between the key variables and the interest rate revert. In the Eurozone countries, we have found that the inflation gap always contributes to increasing the nominal interest rate. On the contrary, the output gap works differently when it reaches values above or below the threshold value, which would favour the reduction of the interest rates towards the zero level.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Public Policy*

Grants and funding

María A. Prats acknowledges the financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness through the project ECO2015-65826-P.