Development and validation of a risk prediction model for in-hospital major cardiovascular events in patients hospitalised for acute myocardial infarction

Abstract

Objectives: Patients admitted to hospital with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have considerable variability in in-hospital risks, resulting in higher demands on healthcare resources. Simple risk-assessment tools are important for the identification of patients with higher risk to inform clinical decisions. However, few risk assessment tools have been built that are suitable for populations with AMI in China. We aim to develop and validate a risk prediction model, and further build a risk scoring system.

Design: Data from a nationally representative retrospective study was used to develop the model. Patients from a prospective study and another nationally representative retrospective study were both used for external validation.

Setting: 161 nationally representative hospitals, and 53 and 157 other hospitals were involved in the above three studies, respectively.

Participants: 8010 patients hospitalised for AMI were included as development sample, and 4485 and 11 223 other patients were included as validation samples in their corresponding studies.

Primary and secondary outcome measures: The in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was defined as death from any cause, recurrent AMI, or ischaemic stroke.

Results: The proportion of in-hospital MACE was 11.7%, 8.8% and 11.4% among the development sample and two external-validation samples, respectively. Nine predictors (ie, age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction, Killip class, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, white blood cell count, heart rate and blood glucose) were independently associated with in-hospital MACE. The model performed well on both discrimination and calibration capability, with areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) curve of 0.85, 0.74 and 0.80, and calibration slopes of 0.98, 0.84 and 0.97 in the development sample and two external validation samples, respectively. A point-based risk scoring system was built with good discrimination and reclassification ability.

Conclusions: A prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was developed and externally validated to estimate risks of in-hospital MACE among patients with AMI, thereby better informing decision-making in improving clinical care.

Keywords: myocardial infarction; risk management; stroke.