Bayesian evaluation of behavior change interventions: a brief introduction and a practical example

Matti T J Heino; Matti Vuorre; Nelli Hankonen

doi:10.1080/21642850.2018.1428102

Bayesian evaluation of behavior change interventions: a brief introduction and a practical example

Health Psychol Behav Med. 2018 Apr 11;6(1):49-78. doi: 10.1080/21642850.2018.1428102.

Authors

Matti T J Heino^{1

2}, Matti Vuorre³, Nelli Hankonen^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
² Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland.
³ Department of Psychology, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.

Abstract

Introduction: Evaluating effects of behavior change interventions is a central interest in health psychology and behavioral medicine. Researchers in these fields routinely use frequentist statistical methods to evaluate the extent to which these interventions impact behavior and the hypothesized mediating processes in the population. However, calls to move beyond the exclusive use of frequentist reasoning are now widespread in psychology and allied fields. We suggest adding Bayesian statistical methods to the researcher's toolbox of statistical methods.

Objectives: We first present the basic principles of the Bayesian approach to statistics and why they are useful for researchers in health psychology. We then provide a practical example on how to evaluate intervention effects using Bayesian methods, with a focus on Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We provide the necessary materials for introductory-level readers to follow the tutorial.

Conclusion: Bayesian analytical methods are now available to researchers through easy-to-use software packages, and we recommend using them to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions for their conceptual and practical benefits.

Keywords: Bayes; Bayesian estimation; health behavior change; intervention evaluation; tutorial.

Grants and funding

MH was supported by Academy of Finland [grant number 295765]. MV was supported, in part, by Institute of Education Sciences [grant number R305A150467]. NH was supported by an Academy of Finland Research Fellowship [grant number 285283]. The data were collected in a project funded by Ministry for Education and Culture, Sport science research projects [grant number OKM34/626/2012].