COVID-19 diagnosis by routine blood tests using machine learning

Sci Rep. 2021 May 24;11(1):10738. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90265-9.

Abstract

Physicians taking care of patients with COVID-19 have described different changes in routine blood parameters. However, these changes hinder them from performing COVID-19 diagnoses. We constructed a machine learning model for COVID-19 diagnosis that was based and cross-validated on the routine blood tests of 5333 patients with various bacterial and viral infections, and 160 COVID-19-positive patients. We selected the operational ROC point at a sensitivity of 81.9% and a specificity of 97.9%. The cross-validated AUC was 0.97. The five most useful routine blood parameters for COVID-19 diagnosis according to the feature importance scoring of the XGBoost algorithm were: MCHC, eosinophil count, albumin, INR, and prothrombin activity percentage. t-SNE visualization showed that the blood parameters of the patients with a severe COVID-19 course are more like the parameters of a bacterial than a viral infection. The reported diagnostic accuracy is at least comparable and probably complementary to RT-PCR and chest CT studies. Patients with fever, cough, myalgia, and other symptoms can now have initial routine blood tests assessed by our diagnostic tool. All patients with a positive COVID-19 prediction would then undergo standard RT-PCR studies to confirm the diagnosis. We believe that our results represent a significant contribution to improvements in COVID-19 diagnosis.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Area Under Curve
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • COVID-19 / diagnosis*
  • COVID-19 / pathology
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Eosinophils / cytology
  • Female
  • Hematologic Tests
  • Humans
  • Machine Learning*
  • Male
  • Prothrombin / metabolism
  • ROC Curve
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Serum Albumin / analysis
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Thorax / diagnostic imaging
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • Serum Albumin
  • Prothrombin