Climatic factors are associated with asthma prevalence: An ecological study using English quality outcomes framework general practitioner practice data

Abstract

Asthma is a complex disease with multiple environmental factors proposed to contribute to aetiology. Geographical analyses can shed light on the determinants of asthma. Ultraviolet radiation has been associated with asthma prevalence in past ecological studies. We have increased the detail of examining the association between asthma and ultraviolet radiation with addition of the variables of temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. An ecological study was designed to investigate meteorological factors associated with asthma prevalence in England. Data from the 2005 quality outcomes framework were used to determine the prevalence of asthma in primary care in England. This information was supplemented with indicators of obesity and smoking of the General Practitioner practice and population (by age and sex), deprivation and ethnicity at lower super output level from the 2001 and 2011 census. Annual mean meteorological data was attained from the Met Office and Joint Research Centre. We used a multiple linear regression to examine individual and multiple climatic factors through a principal components analysis. We tested for an association with asthma prevalence, after taking into account the spatial autocorrelation of the data. Asthma prevalence from general practice surgeries in England was 5.88% (95% CI 5.83 to 5.92). In the highest ultraviolet radiation weighted by the pre-vitamin D action spectrum (UV_vitd) quartile (2.12 to 2.50 kJ/m²/day), asthma had a 5% reduction in prevalence; compared to the lowest quartile here (0.95 (95% CI 0.92 to 0.98)). Similar reductions were found in the higher temperature 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 96). The opposite was found with relative humidity 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.12). A combination of high temperature and UVvitd highlighted postcode districts in the South East of England with a climate beneficial to low asthma prevalence. The South West of England represented a climate which had both beneficial and detrimental associations with asthma development. Climate is associated with asthma prevalence in England. Understanding the contribution of multiple climatic factors and the relationship with the indoor environment could help to explain the population distribution of asthma.

Keywords: Asthma prevalence; Climate; Precipitation; Relative humidity; Temperature; Ultraviolet radiation weighted by the pre-vitamin D action spectrum.