Evolutionary rescue in host-pathogen systems

Abstract

Natural populations encounter a variety of threats that can increase their risk of extinction. Populations can avoid extinction through evolutionary rescue (ER), which occurs when an adaptive, genetic response to selection allows a population to recover from an environmental change that would otherwise cause extinction. While the traditional framework for ER was developed with abiotic risk factors in mind, ER may also occur in response to a biotic source of demographic change, such as the introduction of a novel pathogen. We first describe how ER in response to a pathogen differs from the traditional ER framework; density-dependent transmission, pathogen evolution, and pathogen extinction can change the strength of selection imposed by a pathogen and make host population persistence more likely. We also discuss several variables that affect traditional ER (abundance, genetic diversity, population connectivity, and community composition) that also directly affect disease risk resulting in diverse outcomes for ER in host-pathogen systems. Thus, generalizations developed in studies of traditional ER may not be relevant for ER in response to the introduction of a pathogen. Incorporating pathogens into the framework of ER will lead to a better understanding of how and when populations can avoid extinction in response to novel pathogens.

Keywords: Coevolution; epidemic; evolutionary rescue; extinction; infectious disease; rapid evolution.