A novel mathematical model for COVID-19 with remedial strategies

Shumaila Javeed; Subtain Anjum; Khurram Saleem Alimgeer; M Atif; Mansoor Shaukat Khan; W Aslam Farooq; Atif Hanif; Hijaz Ahmad; Shao-Wen Yao

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104248

A novel mathematical model for COVID-19 with remedial strategies

Results Phys. 2021 Aug:27:104248. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104248. Epub 2021 May 8.

Authors

Shumaila Javeed¹, Subtain Anjum¹, Khurram Saleem Alimgeer², M Atif³, Mansoor Shaukat Khan¹, W Aslam Farooq³, Atif Hanif⁴, Hijaz Ahmad^{5

6}, Shao-Wen Yao⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad, Park Road, Chak Shahzad Islamabad, Pakistan.
² Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, COMSATS University Islamabad, Islamabad Campus, Pakistan.
³ Department of Physics and Astronomy, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia.
⁴ Botany and Microbiology Department, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia.
⁵ Department of Basic Sciences, University of Engineering and Technology, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan.
⁶ Section of Mathematics, International Telematic University Uninettuno, Corso Vittorio Emanuele II, 39, 00186 Roma, Italy.
⁷ School of Mathematics and Information Science, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China.

Abstract

Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak from Wuhan, Hubei province in China and spread out all over the World. In this work, a new mathematical model is proposed. The model consists the system of ODEs. The developed model describes the transmission pathways by employing non constant transmission rates with respect to the conditions of environment and epidemiology. There are many mathematical models purposed by many scientists. In this model, " $α_{E}$ " and " $α_{I}$ ", transmission coefficients of the exposed cases to susceptible and infectious cases to susceptible respectively, are included. " $δ$ " as a governmental action and restriction against the spread of coronavirus is also introduced. The RK method of order four (RK4) is employed to solve the model equations. The results are presented for four countries i.e., Pakistan, Italy, Japan, and Spain etc. The parametric study is also performed to validate the proposed model.

Keywords: Nonlinear differential equations; Runge Kutta method of order 4 (RK4); Stability.