This study compared the quality-adjusted effectiveness and costs of three treatment options for transplant-eligible patients with early progression (POD24) of follicular lymphoma. A Markov decision-analytic model using a 20-year time horizon was used to compare allogeneic stem cell transplant (alloSCT), autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT), and chemo-immunotherapy (O-CHOP). For second relapse/refractory disease, novel therapy use was modeled, including lenalidomide and rituximab/obinutuzumab, and PI3K inhibitors (PI3Ki). Costs were considered from a Canadian public health payer's perspective. Probabilistic analyses (10,000 simulations) demonstrated that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000, ASCT was most cost effective 60% of the time. ASCT resulted in more life years (10.2 vs. alloSCT 9.9 vs. O-CHOP 10.0) and quality-adjusted life years (7.5 vs. alloSCT 6.6 vs. O-CHOP 7.4), with the lowest direct costs ($190,128 CAD). In sensitivity analyses, the model was robust to key variables, including differing probabilities of progression, non-relapse mortality, graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD), costs of treating GVHD, costs of PI3Ki, and probability of secondary malignancy from ASCT. However, if patients were older than 65 years or their life expectancy was less than 10 years, chemo-immunotherapy was the preferred strategy. When considering cost, effectiveness, and toxicities, the preferred treatment strategy for most patients with POD24 follicular lymphoma is ASCT.
© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.