Improved Aflatoxins and Fumonisins Forecasting Models for Maize (PREMA and PREFUM), Using Combined Mechanistic and Bayesian Network Modeling-Serbia as a Case Study

Abstract

Contamination of maize with aflatoxins and fumonisins is one of the major food safety concerns worldwide. Knowing the contamination in advance can help to reduce food safety risks and related health issues and economic losses. The current study aimed to develop forecasting models for the contamination of maize grown in Serbia with aflatoxins and fumonisins. An integrated modeling approach was used, linking mechanistic modeling with artificial intelligence, in particular Bayesian network (BN) modeling. Two of such combined models, i.e., the prediction model for aflatoxins (PREMA) and for fumonisins (PREFUM) in maize, were developed. Data used for developing PREMA were from 867 maize samples, collected in Serbia during the period from 2012 to 2018, of which 190 were also used for developing PREFUM. Both datasets were split randomly in a model training set and a model validation set. With corresponding geographical and meteorological data, the so-called risk indices for total aflatoxins and total fumonisins were calculated using existing mechanistic models. Subsequently, these risk indices were used as input variables for developing the BN models, together with the longitudes and latitudes of the sites at which the samples were collected and related weather data. PREMA and PREFUM were internally and externally validated, resulting in a prediction accuracy of PREMA of, respectively, 83 and 70%, and of PREFUM of 76% and 80%. The capability of PREMA and PREFUM for predicting aflatoxins and fumonisins contamination using data from the early maize growth stages only was explored as well, and promising results were obtained. The integrated approach combining two different modeling techniques, as developed in the current study, was able to overcome the obstacles of unbalanced data and deficiency of the datasets, which are often seen in historical observational data from the food safety domain. The models provide predictions for mycotoxin contamination at the field level; this information can assist stakeholders of the maize supply chain, including farmers, buyers/collectors, and food safety authorities, to take timely decisions for improved mycotoxin control. The developed models can be further validated by applying them into practice, and they can be extended to other European maize growing areas.

Keywords: Aspergillus; Fusarium; corn; mycotoxins; prediction; unbalanced data; validation; weather.