Uncertainty of nitrogen budget in China

Abstract

The accuracy of the nitrogen (N) budget is of great importance for evidence-based decision-making to address both food security and environmental protection challenges. This study attempts to advance understanding of uncertainties in China's N budget using the Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) model and Monte Carlo simulation from 1980 to 2018. Results show that the spatial and temporal variations in agricultural and industrial activities and insufficient knowledge on N cycling parameterization are the two dominant causes of uncertainties in the N budget in China. Uncertainties of N inputs generally are <10%, while they are <30% for N outputs and >30% for N accumulations. Uncertainty of nitrogen oxides emission is more sensitive to energy consumption due to the large contributions from industry and transportation. While the uncertainty of ammonia emission is predominantly affected by agricultural activity. Combining surface measurements, satellite observations, and atmospheric simulation models enables cross-check of N fluxes in multiple systems and reduces uncertainties of N budget.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; N balance; N budget; Sustainable N management; Uncertainty analysis.