Phenological responses to climate change based on a hundred years of herbarium collections of tropical Melastomataceae

PLoS One. 2021 May 7;16(5):e0251360. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251360. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

Changes in phenological events have been vastly documented in face of recent global climate change. These studies are concentrated on temperate plants, and the responses of tropical species are still little understood, likely due to the lack of long-term phenological records in the tropics. In this case, the use of herbarium specimens to gather phenological data over long periods and wide geographic areas has emerged as a powerful tool. Here, we used four Melastomataceae species endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest to evaluate phenological patterns and alterations as responses to recent climate changes. Phenological data were gathered from Reflora Virtual Herbarium specimens collected between 1920 and 2018, and analyzed with circular statistics applied to the intervals 1920-1979, 1980-1999, and 2000-2018. The effects of temperature range, average temperature, precipitation, and photoperiod on flowering and fruiting of each species were tested using multiple linear regressions. Through circular statistics, we detected changes, mostly delays, in the flowering of Miconia quinquedentata, Pleroma clavatum and P. trichopodum, and in the fruiting of M. acutiflora, P. clavatum and P. trichopodum. We also found that flowering and fruiting occurrence were related to local climatic conditions from months prior to the collections. We found marked phenological variations over the decades and also that these variations are associated to global climate change, adding up to the large body of evidence from higher latitudes. Our results also support herbarium collections as an important source for long-term tropical phenological studies. The lack of consistent patterns of responses among the four species (e.g. fruiting delayed two months in P. clavatum and advanced one month in M. acutiflora) suggests that climate change has unequal effects across tropical forests. This highlights the urgent need for further research to understand and forecast the ecological implications of these changes in global ecosystems processes.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Flowers
  • Fruit
  • Melastomataceae*
  • Reproduction
  • Temperature

Associated data

  • figshare/10.6084/m9.figshare.13366235

Grants and funding

DFL (#55225/2018-9) and JHFM (#15246/2019-0) received post-doc fellowships, ITL received scientific initiation scholarship, and RCF (#303420/2016-2), RG (#308065/2017-4) and LF (#304794/2018-0) received research productivity grants from Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, Brazil). RCF (#E-26/202.775/2018) and LF (#E-26/202.778/2018) also received additional funding from Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ, Brazil, “Programa Cientistas do Nosso Estado”). This work was supported by funds from Natura Cosméticos S/A, and financed in part by Coordernação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES, Brazil) - Finance Code 001. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.