In this paper, we developed a personalized anticoagulant treatment recommendation model for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients based on reinforcement learning (RL) and evaluated the effectiveness of the model in terms of short-term and long-term outcomes. The data used in our work were baseline and follow-up data of 8,540 AF patients with high risk of stroke, enrolled in the Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry (CAFR) study during 2011 to 2018. We found that in 64.98% of patient visits, the anticoagulant treatment recommended by the RL model were concordant with the actual prescriptions of the clinicians. Model-concordant treatments were associated with less ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (SSE) event compared with non-concordant ones, but no significant difference on the occurrence rate of major bleeding. We also found that higher proportion of model-concordant treatments were associated with lower risk of death. Our approach identified several high-confidence rules, which were interpreted by clinical experts.
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