Excessive use of pesticides and fertilisers has been a key issue limiting sustainable agricultural development. China is a typical pesticide- and chemical-fertiliser-dependent agricultural production area. We have matched the target indicators related to sustainable agricultural development (SDG1 and SDG2) and analysed the gap between China and four developed countries in terms of fertiliser and pesticide use intensity and efficiency from 2002 to 2016. We have used an improved Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model and cluster analysis to identify the factors and effects driving increased pesticide and fertiliser inputs in China, and we discuss the exploratory effects of different provinces in reducing pesticide and fertiliser application and increasing efficiency. The findings reveal that (1) China is a typical pesticide- and fertiliser-dependent agricultural production area. The average combined fertiliser application efficiency in China from 2002 to 2016 was only 28% of that of the Netherlands, and the country's average combined pesticide application efficiency was only 35% of that of the USA. (2) The most important of the three main drivers of the increase in pesticide and fertiliser inputs in China is the value added of the primary industry, contributing 56% for the period 2007-2016. (3) Further analysis at the provincial level according to four types-high-intensity high-yield type, high-intensity low-yield type, low-intensity high-yield type, and low-intensity low-yield type-clarified the provinces that should be focused on at the national level in terms of pesticide and fertiliser application reduction and efficiency increase in the future.
Keywords: Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model; agricultural production efficiency; cluster analysis; pesticide and fertiliser reduction; sustainable agricultural development.