Comparison of methods to predict feed intake and residual feed intake using behavioral and metabolite data in addition to classical performance variables

Abstract

Predicting dry matter intake (DMI) and feed efficiency by leveraging the use of data streams available on farm could aid efforts to improve the feed efficiency of dairy cattle. Residual feed intake (RFI) is the difference between predicted and observed feed intake after accounting for body size, body weight change, and milk production, making it a valuable metric for feed efficiency research. Our objective was to develop and evaluate DMI and RFI prediction models using multiple linear regression (MLR), partial least squares regression, artificial neural networks, and stacked ensembles using different combinations of cow descriptive, performance, sensor-derived behavioral (SMARTBOW; Zoetis), and blood metabolite data. Data were collected from mid-lactation Holstein cows (n = 124; 102 multiparous, 22 primiparous) split equally between 2 replicates of 45-d duration with ad libitum access to feed. Within each predictive approach, 4 data streams were added in sequence: dataset M (week of lactation, parity, milk yield, and milk components), dataset MB (dataset M plus body condition score and metabolic body weight), dataset MBS (dataset MB plus sensor-derived behavioral variables), and dataset MBSP (dataset MBS plus physiological blood metabolites). The combination of 4 datasets and 4 analytical approaches resulted in 16 analyses of DMI and RFI, using variables averaged within cow across the study period. Additional models using weekly averaged data within cow and study were built using all predictive approaches for datasets M, MB, and MBS. Model performance was assessed using the coefficient of determination, concordance correlation coefficient, and root mean square error of prediction. Predictive models of DMI performed similarly across all approaches, and models using dataset MBS had the greatest model performance. The best approach-dataset combination was MLR-dataset MBS, although several models performed similarly. Weekly DMI models had the greatest performance with MLR and partial least squares regression approaches. Dataset MBS models had incrementally better performance than datasets MB and M. Within each approach-dataset combination, models with DMI averaged over the study period had slightly greater model performance than DMI averaged weekly. Predictive performance of all RFI models was poor, but slight improvements when using MLR applied to dataset MBS suggest that rumination and activity behaviors may explain some of the variation in RFI. Overall, similar performance of MLR, compared with machine learning techniques, indicates MLR may be sufficient to predict DMI. The improvement in model performance with each additional data stream supports the idea of integrating data streams to improve model predictions and farm management decisions.

Keywords: dry matter intake; machine learning; regression; sensor.