Development and validation of a regression model for Listeria monocytogenes growth in roast beefs

Taran Skjerdal; Lars Erik Gangsei; Ole Alvseike; Kyrre Kausrud; Alessandra De Cesare; Elena-Alexandra Alexa; Avelino Alvarez-Ordóñez; Lena Haugland Moen; Ane Mohr Osland; Cecilie From; Birgit Nordvik; Toril Lindbäck; Janne Kvello; Beate Folgerø; Sissel Dommersnes; Sigrun J Hauge

doi:10.1016/j.fm.2021.103770

Development and validation of a regression model for Listeria monocytogenes growth in roast beefs

Food Microbiol. 2021 Sep:98:103770. doi: 10.1016/j.fm.2021.103770. Epub 2021 Mar 3.

Authors

Taran Skjerdal¹, Lars Erik Gangsei², Ole Alvseike³, Kyrre Kausrud⁴, Alessandra De Cesare⁵, Elena-Alexandra Alexa⁶, Avelino Alvarez-Ordóñez⁶, Lena Haugland Moen⁴, Ane Mohr Osland⁴, Cecilie From⁷, Birgit Nordvik⁷, Toril Lindbäck⁸, Janne Kvello⁹, Beate Folgerø¹⁰, Sissel Dommersnes¹¹, Sigrun J Hauge³

Affiliations

¹ Norwegian Veterinary Institute, P. O. Box 750 Sentrum, 0106, Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: taran.skjerdal@vetinst.no.
² Animalia Norwegian Meat and Poultry Centre, P. O. Box 396 Økern, 0513, Oslo, Norway; Faculty of Chemistry, Biotechnology and Food Science, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003 NMBU N-1432 Ås, Norway.
³ Animalia Norwegian Meat and Poultry Centre, P. O. Box 396 Økern, 0513, Oslo, Norway.
⁴ Norwegian Veterinary Institute, P. O. Box 750 Sentrum, 0106, Oslo, Norway.
⁵ Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via Tolara di Sopra 50, 40064, Ozzano Dell'Emilia, BO, Italy.
⁶ Department of Food Hygiene and Technology and Institute of Food Science and Technology, Universidad de León, Campus de Vegazana, S/n, 24071, León, Spain.
⁷ Matbørsen AS, Borgeskogen 38, 3160, Stokke, Norway.
⁸ Unit for Food Safety, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Universitetstunet 3, 1433, Ås, Norway.
⁹ Grilstad AS, Ranheimsveien 129b, 7053, Ranheim, Norway.
¹⁰ Nortura SA, Lørenveien 37, 0585, Oslo, Norway.
¹¹ Fatland AS, Hommersåkveien 250, 4311, Hommersåk, Norway.

PMID: 33875206
DOI: 10.1016/j.fm.2021.103770

Abstract

Food business operators are responsible for food safety and assessment of shelf lives for their ready-to-eat products. For assisting them, a customized software based on predictive models, ListWare, is being developed. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model for the growth of Listeria monocytogenes in sliced roast beef. A challenge study was performed comprising 51 different combinations of variables. The growth curves followed the Baranyi and Roberts model with no clear lag phase and specific growth rates in the range <0.005-0.110 hr^-1. A linear regression model was developed based on 528 observations and had an adjusted R-square of 0.80. The significant predictors were storage temperature, sodium lactate, interactions between sodium acetate and temperature, and MAP packaging and temperature. The model was validated in four laboratories in three countries. For conditions where the model predicted up to + log 2 cfu/g Listeria concentration, the observed concentrations were true or below the predicted concentration in 90% of the cases. For the remaining 10%, the roast beef was coated with spices and therefore different from the others. The model will be implemented in ListWare web-application for calculation of "Listeria shelf life".

Keywords: Growth; Listeria monocytogenes; Meat; Predictive model.

MeSH terms

Animals
Cattle
Fast Foods / microbiology*
Food Contamination / analysis
Food Contamination / statistics & numerical data*
Food Safety
Food Storage
Kinetics
Listeria monocytogenes / chemistry
Listeria monocytogenes / genetics
Listeria monocytogenes / growth & development*
Listeria monocytogenes / isolation & purification
Meat Products / analysis
Meat Products / microbiology*
Models, Biological
Regression Analysis
Temperature