An extensive literature exists hypothesizing a negative association between immigration and a multitude of social goods issues. Recent analyses, however, have established that the perception of the size of the immigrant population may be more relevant than the actual size of the population in shaping attitudes, and that the effect of immigration on social policy attitudes may be more salient at the local-or even neighborhood-level than at the country-level. In extending this work, we examine how perceptions and misperceptions about the size of the immigrant population affect attitudes about redistribution and social policies within one of the most diverse and ethnically heterogeneous immigrant cities in the world, New York City. We analyzed data from a diverse sample of 320 NYC residents recruited through Amazon Mechanical Turk who responded to a series of questions regarding their perceptions of the size of the immigrant population of their neighborhood before indicating their redistributive and social policy preferences. We found that about a quarter of New Yorkers overestimated the size of the non-citizen population, though the proportion was lower than those in studies of other geographic units. In addition, those that perceived a lower citizen proportion or overestimated the size of the non-citizen population were the least supportive of redistribution and social policies. Implications for the existing research on the relationship between immigration and social policy preferences are discussed.
Keywords: innumeracy; migration; neighborhood diversity; preferences for redistribution; social policy preferences.
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