In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many U.S. locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.
Keywords: climate variability; future climate; nonpoint source pollutants; point source pollutants; water quality; watersheds.