The effect of human settlement temperature and humidity on the growth rules of infected and recovered cases of COVID-19

Pius Babuna; Chuanliang Han; Meijia Li; Amatus Gyilbag; Bian Dehui; Doris Abra Awudi; Roberto Xavier Supe Tulcan; Saini Yang; Xiaohua Yang

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2021.111106

The effect of human settlement temperature and humidity on the growth rules of infected and recovered cases of COVID-19

Environ Res. 2021 Jun:197:111106. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111106. Epub 2021 Apr 15.

Authors

Pius Babuna¹, Chuanliang Han², Meijia Li³, Amatus Gyilbag⁴, Bian Dehui⁵, Doris Abra Awudi⁶, Roberto Xavier Supe Tulcan⁵, Saini Yang⁷, Xiaohua Yang⁸

Affiliations

¹ School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Department of Geography and Environmental Science, The University of Reading, Whiteknights, P.O. Box 227, Reading RG6 6AB, UK.
² State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience and Learning & IDG/McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
³ Faculty of Psychology and Center for Neuroscience, Vrije University Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium.
⁴ Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (GSCAAS), Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China.
⁵ School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
⁶ Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Longmian Avenue 101, Nanjing 211166, China.
⁷ Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: yangsaini@bnu.edu.cn.
⁸ School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: xiaohuayang@bnu.edu.cn.

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of humidity and temperature on the spread of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) by statistically comparing modelled pandemic dynamics (daily infection and recovery cases) with daily temperature and humidity of three climate zones (Mainland China, South America and Africa) from January to August 2020. We modelled the pandemic growth using a simple logistic function to derive information of the viral infection and describe the growth of infected and recovered cases. The results indicate that the infected and recovered cases of the first wave were controlled in China and managed in both South America and Africa. There is a negative correlation between both humidity (r = - 0.21; p = 0.27) and temperature (r = -0.22; p = 0.24) with spread of the virus. Though this study did not fully encompass socio-cultural factors, we recognise that local government responses, general health policies, population density and transportation could also affect the spread of the virus. The pandemic can be managed better in the second wave if stricter safety protocols are implemented. We urge various units to collaborate strongly and call on countries to adhere to stronger safety protocols in the second wave.

Keywords: COVID-19; Humidity; Pandemic growth; SARS-CoV-2; Socio-cultural factors; Temperature.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Africa
COVID-19*
China / epidemiology
Humans
Humidity
SARS-CoV-2
Temperature