Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with small cell carcinoma of the esophagus: A population study based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

Abstract

This study aims to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for small cell carcinoma of the esophagus (SCCE).A total of 552 patients with SCCE from 1975 to 2016 were extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the prognostic factors of patients, and a nomogram was constructed. The nomogram was then validated internally by using a consistency index (C-index) and a correction curve to evaluate its predictive value.The Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that age, stage, surgery, primary site, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were the prognostic factors of SCCE (P < .1), and they were used to construct the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting survival was 0.749 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.722-0.776). The data were randomly divided into a modeling group and a validation group based on 7:3 for internal validation. The C-indices of the modeling and validation groups were 0.753 and 0.725, respectively, and they were close to 0.749. The calibration curves exhibited good consistency between the predicted and actual survival rates.The nomogram of the survival and prognosis of patients with SCCE in this study had a good predictive value and could provide clinicians with accurate and practical predictive tools. It could also be used to facilitate a rapid and accurate assessment of patients' survival and prognosis on an individual basis.