The potential existence of threshold yield loss in dry season rice growing systems under coastal saline environment remains unexplored, a scenario that could have policy relevance in government planning of rice intensification in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. This study applied the adaptation tipping points (ATPs) approach to investigate threshold yield loss from multiple perspectives of farmers affected by salinity. Data were generated from 280 randomly-selected farmers (rice farmers, n = 109; shrimp farmers, n = 107; salt farmers, n = 64) from two coastal sub-districts using a semi-structured survey. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted to complement the survey results. Our study revealed that despite government actions to promote dry season rice cultivation, farmers have been growing less rice in this season, with salinity-affected yield loss being the prime reason. Most of the rice farmers have considered that they would discontinue rice cultivation in this season due to yield loss, while shrimp and salt farmers have already reduced rice cultivation for the same reason and shifted to shrimp and salt farming as they perceived these enterprises as highly profitable and require less labour than rice farming. Rice farmers would tolerate a greater rice yield loss (23%) under saline conditions compared with the shrimp (16%) and salt farmers (14%). The yield loss thresholds indicate the need for government actions to support and encourage integrated land management for rice, shrimp and salt farming, rather than research and extension efforts for dry season rice expansion alone. These actions could strengthen sustainable livelihood options to ensure food security, and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals, for instance no poverty (SDG-1), zero hunger (SDG-2), and good health and well-being (SDG-3).
Keywords: Coastal areas; Dry season rice; Salinity; Threshold yield loss; Tipping points; Uncertainty.
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