Dynamic linkage between industrialization, energy consumption, carbon emission, and agricultural products export of Pakistan: an ARDL approach

Abstract

This study aims to contribute to the literature and examine the causal relationship between Pakistan's agricultural products export, industrialization, urbanization, transportation, energy consumption, and carbon emissions. For the last four decades, time-series data were used to employ short-run and long-run nexus between the selected variables by analyzing the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The Granger causality test was analyzed to estimate the causality directions. The unit root test results indicate that all the selected variables are stationary at the level and first difference. The bound test confirmed that all variables are cointegrated at a 1% significance level. Long-run estimates suggest that an increase in energy consumption will increase the export of agricultural products. An increase in urbanization, transportation, and carbon emission resulted in a decrease in agricultural products export in Pakistan. In the short run, an increase in industrialization, transportation, and energy consumption leads to an increase in agricultural products export. Increasing urbanization and carbon emission decrease the agricultural products export of Pakistan. Based on our findings, we recommend sustainable agricultural production, renewable energy consumption, low carbon emission technologies, and a green portfolio for sustainable agricultural products export.

Keywords: Agricultural products exports; Carbon emissions; Industrialization; Pakistan; Urbanization.