Background: Given the rampant HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chengdu, southwest China, Treat All policy, defined as immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation after HIV diagnosis, was implemented since 2014. Real-world research evaluating impacts of immediate ART on HIV epidemics is needed to optimize policy-making as national and international guidelines have been lowering ART eligibility threshold. The purpose of this study is to: assess temporal trends of the HIV epidemic and impacts of Treat All policy among MSM; and lay foundation for HIV-related policy evaluation using longitudinal routine data from health information systems.
Methods: Data used in this study were HIV sentinel seroprevalence, annual reported HIV cases and ART coverage rate among MSM in Chengdu from 2008 to 2018, derived from national HIV/AIDS information system. Temporal trends of the HIV epidemic were described using Joinpoint Regression Program. Interrupted time-series method was deployed to evaluate Treat All policy.
Results: HIV sentinel seroprevalence rose from 11.20% in 2008 to 17.67% in 2013 and Annual Percent Change (APC) was 8.25% (95% CI - 2.40%, 20.07%), then decreased to 5.17% in 2018 (APC = - 19.63%, 95% CI - 27.54%, - 10.86%). Newly reported HIV cases increased from 168 cases in 2008 to 1232 cases in 2015 (APC = 26.99%, 95% CI 21.32%, 32.93%), and reduced to 1014 cases in 2018 (APC = - 8.80%, 95% CI - 18.45%, 2.01%). ART coverage rate has been climbing from 11.11% in 2008 to 92.29% in 2018 and Average Annual Percent Change was 16.09% (95% CI 11.76%, 20.59%). Results of interrupted time-series models showed that compared to an annual increase of 0.87% during pre-policy period, there was a decline of 3.08% (95% CI - 0.0366%, - 0.0250%) per year of HIV sentinel seroprevalence since 2014; and compared to an annual increase of 116 cases before 2014, there was an annual drop of 158 newly reported HIV cases (95% CI - 194.87%, - 121.69%) during the post-policy period.
Conclusions: Immediate ART after HIV diagnosis could potentially curb HIV transmission at population level among MSM, along with other strategies. Future assessment of HIV prevention and control policy can be carried out using routinely collected longitudinal data from health information systems.
Keywords: Antiretroviral therapy, highly active; HIV infections; HIV seroprevalence; Health policy; Homosexuality, male; Interrupted time series analysis.