Assortative social mixing and sex disparities in tuberculosis burden

Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 6;11(1):7530. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-86869-w.

Abstract

Globally, men have higher tuberculosis (TB) burden but the mechanisms underlying this sex disparity are not fully understood. Recent surveys of social mixing patterns have established moderate preferential within-sex mixing in many settings. This assortative mixing could amplify differences from other causes. We explored the impact of assortative mixing and factors differentially affecting disease progression and detection using a sex-stratified deterministic TB transmission model. We explored the influence of assortativity at disease-free and endemic equilibria, finding stronger effects during invasion and on increasing male:female prevalence (M:F) ratios than overall prevalence. Variance-based sensitivity analysis of endemic equilibria identified differential progression as the most important driver of M:F ratio uncertainty. We fitted our model to prevalence and notification data in exemplar settings within a fully Bayesian framework. For our high M:F setting, random mixing reduced equilibrium M:F ratios by 12% (95% CrI 0-30%). Equalizing male case detection there led to a 20% (95% CrI 11-31%) reduction in M:F ratio over 10 years-insufficient to eliminate sex disparities. However, this potentially achievable improvement was associated with a meaningful 8% (95% CrI 4-14%) reduction in total TB prevalence over this time frame.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Prevalence
  • Sex Factors
  • Social Interaction / ethnology*
  • Social Networking
  • Tuberculosis / epidemiology
  • Tuberculosis / ethnology*
  • Tuberculosis / transmission*