The impact of two-dose varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster incidence in South Korea using a mathematical model with changing population demographics

Abstract

Background: In South Korea, one-dose varicella vaccination was introduced to the National Immunization Program in 2005, but varicella outbreaks have continued to occur. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy is considered.

Methods: We developed an age-structured deterministic compartment model using Korean population projection data. The impact of adding a second dose of varicella vaccine on varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) epidemiology was assessed under four different vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios (base, moderate, lowest, highest) and the optimal timing of the second vaccine dose (18 months, 4, 5, or 6 years of age) was examined over the period 2020-2065.

Results: A two-dose vaccination schedule reduced the cumulative varicella incidence by > 90% compared to no vaccination, regardless of the VE. The additional reduction attributable to a second dose compared to a single dose was greatest (82%) with the lowest VE scenario. A second dose at 6 years of age reduced the varicella incidence at a population level, whereas a second dose at 18 months of age reduced the varicella incidence primarily in the target birth cohorts. Routine vaccination at the age of 18 months with a catch-up vaccination of 6-year-olds was the optimal strategy for birth cohort and population-level control. HZ incidence continued to increase under no vaccination scenario, which represents the effect of aging population. Under a two-dose scenario, the additional increase in HZ incidence attributable to the reduced exogenous boosting was small relative to a one-dose scenario and a further reduction in HZ cases was observed.

Conclusion: A two-dose varicella vaccination schedule would significantly reduce varicella and HZ incidence in the long term. A second dose at the age of 18 months with a catch-up vaccination of 6-year-olds would be optimal for controlling varicella in South Korea.

Keywords: Dynamic population; Herpes zoster; Mathematical model; South Korea; Varicella; Varicella vaccination.