Carbon emission of energy consumption of the electric vehicle development scenario

Abstract

To explore the impact of promotion of electric vehicles on carbon emissions in China, this paper used the principal component analysis (PCA)-logistic regression model to predict the demand for traditional vehicles, and used the scenario analysis method to analyze the proportion of electric vehicles in traditional vehicles qualitatively. Then this paper calculated the carbon emissions during the power generation process based on the existing power structure. In addition, the IPCC carbon emission calculation method is used to compare the CO₂ emissions produced by electric vehicles and fuel vehicles with similar vehicle quality while driving the same distance and consuming different energy sources. The results showed that the CO₂ emissions of electric vehicles accounted for only 37.05% of fuel vehicles. By 2050, the annual electricity demand of electric vehicles will be 828.7, 776.9, and 752.1 billion kWh under the radical scenario, the reference scenario, and the negative scenario, respectively. According to the current power structure, the carbon emissions will be 1.2, 1.1, and 1 billion tons, respectively. The rapid growth of electric vehicles has a substantial impact on the grid load. Studying the changes in CO₂ emissions from energy substitution is significant to formulate the development strategy of the automobile industry and adjust energy structure policies.

Keywords: Carbon emission; Electric vehicles; Electricity demand.