Individual differences in the perception of probability

PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Apr 1;17(4):e1008871. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008871. eCollection 2021 Apr.

Abstract

In recent studies of humans estimating non-stationary probabilities, estimates appear to be unbiased on average, across the full range of probability values to be estimated. This finding is surprising given that experiments measuring probability estimation in other contexts have often identified conservatism: individuals tend to overestimate low probability events and underestimate high probability events. In other contexts, repulsive biases have also been documented, with individuals producing judgments that tend toward extreme values instead. Using extensive data from a probability estimation task that produces unbiased performance on average, we find substantial biases at the individual level; we document the coexistence of both conservative and repulsive biases in the same experimental context. Individual biases persist despite extensive experience with the task, and are also correlated with other behavioral differences, such as individual variation in response speed and adjustment rates. We conclude that the rich computational demands of our task give rise to a variety of behavioral patterns, and that the apparent unbiasedness of the pooled data is an artifact of the aggregation of heterogeneous biases.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Computer Simulation
  • Humans
  • Individuality*
  • Judgment / physiology*
  • Perception / physiology*
  • Probability*

Grants and funding

The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support of this research by the National Science Foundation (DRMS grants no.1426168 and 1949418; M.W.), and the Cognitive and Behavioral Economics Initiative of Columbia University (M.W.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.